Evidence on Creatine

Strong scientific evidence for this use Enhanced muscle mass / strength: Several high-quality studies have shown an increase in muscle mass with creatine use. However, some weaker studies have reported mixed results. Overall, the available evidence suggests that creatine does increase lean body mass, strength, and total work. Future studies should include the effect of individual differences such as fitness levels, sex, and age. Unclear scientific evidence for this use Athletic performance...

 The Unmentioned Trade-Offs in Life Extention

Now it is not that the cell biologists can’t point to experiments which seem to fit their views, as is common in natural science. (After all, the Earth’s Moon does indeed have a geocentric orbit.) Good colleagues of mine like Robert Reis are able to produce nematode worms that live ten times longer than their unmutated controls, if they use ingenious genetic and environmental manipulation. But nematodes have well-developed physiological machinery for sustaining states of metabolic arrest,...

 Predictability and the Base Rate

Whenever a statistician wants to predict the likelihood of some event based on the available evidence, there are two main sources of information that have to be taken into account: (1) the evidence itself, for which a reliability figure has to be calculated; and (2) the likelihood of the event calculated purely in terms of relative incidence. The second figure here is the base rate. Since it is just a number, obtained by the seemingly dull process of counting, it frequently gets overlooked wh...

 Possibilianism

Eagleman was brought up as a secular Jew and became an atheist in his teens. Lately, though, he’d taken to calling himself a Possibilian—a denomination of his own invention. Science had taught him to be skeptical of cosmic certainties, he told me. From the unfathomed complexity of brain tissue—“essentially an alien computational material”—to the mystery of dark matter, we know too little about our own minds and the universe around us to insist on strict atheism, he said. “And we...